In August 1974 US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger received the following intelligence briefing on the military situation in Vietnam:

“The communists have recently increased the level of their military action in South Vietnam, and several indicators point to further increases in the near future.

While it is not believed a countrywide 1972-level offensive will occur in 1974, the communists are clearly preparing to return to large-scale warfare at some point in the future.

They have rebuilt their army in 1973-74 and now have the capability to carry out major or all-out attacks on short notice.

The South Vietnamese are now in a more vulnerable position compared with a few months ago, and the communists recognise this.

If the North Vietnamese perceive the US is no longer willing to come to Saigon’s defence, or that the battlefield situation is turning in their favour or both, they may opt for heavier action to make major gains. It would, however, taken them several weeks to implement such a decision and we would obtain advanced indication of their preparations.

Over the next few months, communist military activities will be aimed at:

1. Countering GVN [South Vietnamese government] pacification and military operations

2. Expanding control over territory and populations, and;

3. Weakening the GVN and the ARVN [South Vietnamese Army].”