Though it ended almost three decades ago, the Cold War continues to influence the modern world. The nation-building and internationalism of the Cold War, along with many of the political and military alliances forged during the period, continue to endure. Many Cold War ideas and attitudes still colour our political ideology and language. Proxy wars and meddling have profoundly affected the developing world and contributed to ongoing trouble in some areas. Cold War interventions in the Middle East and countries like Afghanistan have created destabilisation and contributed to the rise of separatist movements, Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism. Many of the Cold War’s tensions and divisions – such as the Sino-Soviet split and the United States-Cuba freeze – have faded into history, while some still remain. As major powers, the United States and Russia have charted their own foreign policy in recent times, leading to new tensions and difficulties. Meanwhile, China has emerged as a post-Cold War superpower while nations like Germany, Japan and India have grown and prospered.
Nuclear weapons post-Cold War
The most dangerous legacy of the Cold War is its vast arsenal of nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, nuclear-capable states manufactured around 130,000 nuclear warheads, more than half of these produced by the United States. The vast majority of these weapons have been decommissioned and deconstructed. Today, the US and Russia retain active stockpiles of 4,000-4,500 nuclear warheads apiece, of which 1,300-1,400 are strategic nuclear weapons. There are seven other nuclear-capable states (Britain, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and China) with stockpiles of between 120 and 300 nuclear warheads each. North Korea has successfully tested nuclear devices and may have up to 15 active warheads. Iran, Iraq and Lybia have undertaken secret research programs to develop nuclear weapons, though these programs are now believed to be defunct. South Africa is the only nation to have abandoned nuclear weapons, ordering the deconstruction of several nuclear warheads in 1989.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 raised questions about the fate of its 38,000 nuclear warheads. Experts pondered some dangerous and potentially catastrophic scenarios. The decentralisation of power could mean control of nuclear weapons passing to former Soviet republics with unstable or belligerent leaders. This situation was avoided with the signing of the signing of the Lisbon Protocol (May 1992) which surrendered all nuclear weapons in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to Russia. As a consequence, Russia remained the sole nuclear power in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). A more dangerous scenario was the possibility of the theft and sale of Soviet nuclear warheads to rogue states, dictators or non-state actors, such as terrorists or criminals. This situation was avoided through close cooperation and exchanges between American and Russian scientists, with the backing of their respective governments. Through this cooperation, all Soviet nuclear warheads were accounted for and decommissioned in large numbers.
Geopolitical changes
The decline of socialism and the end of the Cold War led to geopolitical change elsewhere. In central Europe, the election of a liberal government in Czechoslovakia coincided with rising Slovak nationalism in the country’s east. In July 1992 the Slovak parliament passed a declaration of independence and, six months later, Czechoslovakia separated into two sovereign nations: the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The dissolution of Yugoslavia was much less peaceful. Formed in 1945, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was largely held together by the leadership of Marshal Josip Tito. After Tito’s death in 1980, Yugoslavia was beset by ethnic and nationalist tensions. Led by Slobodan Miloševic, Serbian nationalists sought to maintain and extend their control over the region. Four disgruntled regions (Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) all declared their independence in 1991 and 1992. These changes triggered a decade-long war in Yugoslavia, marked by lawlessness, war crimes and claims of racial genocide. NATO intervened twice in this conflict, bombing targets in 1995 and 1999 to stop ethnic violence by Serbian and Bosnian-Serb forces. The NATO intervention was opposed by Russia and increased tensions between Washington and Moscow.
The 1990s also saw greater cooperation and unity between former rivals. In November 1990, 32 European nations, along with the US and Canada, signed the Paris Charter for a New Europe. This agreement, which facilitated greater consultation and collaboration between all European nations, is viewed by some historians as the peace treaty that formally ended the Cold War. The Paris Treaty led to the formation of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), an intergovernmental body sometimes described as the ‘European United Nations’. The OSCE investigates and deliberates on many issues including security and policing, counter-terrorism, border control, crisis management, conflict prevention, fair elections, human trafficking, freedom of the press and other human rights issues. More controversial is the ongoing role of NATO, which has continued despite the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the end of the Cold War. In recent years several former Soviet bloc nations have been admitted as member-states of NATO, including Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states. Russian leaders like Vladimir Putin view the continuation and expansion of NATO as an unjustifiable threat to their country.
Islamic terrorism
“Fighting Islamic terrorism is perhaps the most important post-Cold War challenge faced by the West… [Islamic fundamentalism] dares to lock horns with the Western establishment, which has in its midst the unique superpower, the victor of the two World Wars and the Cold War, the conqueror of the bastion of world communism, the victor of almost all wars it has fought, and the citadel of world capitalism. Worse still, the challenge is not even from a classical superpower but from a group of disgruntled renegades from the Third World.”
Al-amine Mohammed Abba Seid, author
As predicted by political theorist Samuel Huntington, the end of the Cold War coincided with an increase in radical Islamic movements in the Middle East and Asia. Cold War interventions contributed directly to this rise in Islamic radicalism. In 1953, Britain and the US orchestrated an coup d’état to replace the government of Iran. The Iranian prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, was a nationalist who enacted policies to reduce foreign ownership and control of his country’s vast oil reserves. Mosaddegh was imprisoned and replaced by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the incumbent Shah (monarch). The Shah governed Iran for the next 26 years, overseeing Western-style reforms, modernisation and infrastructure projects. An economic recession in the mid-1970s eroded his popularity, however, and left millions of young people unemployed. Numerous groups began to protest for political change. Among them was a coalition of religious groups led by Ruhollah Khomeini, better known as the Ayatollah (‘sign of God’). The Shah fled Iran in January 1979 and Khomeini and his followers gained control, establishing a theocratic government. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been hostile to the US and Western values ever since.
Islamic fundamentalism also took root in Afghanistan after the Cold War. The central Asian nation was governed by Mohammad Najibullah but the collapse of the Soviet Union left him without military or economic support. Najibullah resigned in 1992 and various tribal warlords and mujahideen groups began fighting for control of the capital Kabul. A group of radical Muslims backed by Pakistan and calling themselves the Taliban (‘students’) captured Kabul in September 1996. The Taliban ruled the vast majority of Afghanistan for the next five years, imposing laws based on their own warped interpretation of Islam. They conducted massacres of Harazas, Kurds and other non-Sunni Muslim groups. Afghan women were also subjected to religious oppression: they were banned from education, fraternising with men and appearing in public without a male relative. The Taliban also proved cover and support for al-Qaeda, an Islamic terrorist organisation headed by former mujahideen Osama bin Laden. When al-Qaeda carried out the September 11th terrorist attacks on the United States, a US-backed coalition invaded Afghanistan, overthrowing the Taliban and scattering remaining al-Qaeda members.
The rise of China
In the People’s Republic of China, the years after the Cold War produced significant reform and rapid economic growth. The death of Mao Zedong in 1976 saw the emergence of Deng Xiaoping as leader. While Mao was a communist idealist, Deng was a pragmatist who understood the need for economic growth and progress. In late 1978 he unveiled a series of reforms that abolished agricultural collectives and wound back government control of industry and manufacturing. Later reforms also allowed and encouraged greater foreign investment and trade. Over time, Deng’s economic liberalisation produced rapid growth, wage increases, improved standards of living and the formation of a large middle class in China’s cities. These improvements have been accompanied by a range of problems, such as excessive urbanisation, wide disparities of wealth and growing corruption. Despite difficult periods, such as the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the Chinese economy has continued to surge. Since Deng’s 1978 reforms, China’s gross domestic product has increased at an average of almost 10 percent each year. Today it has the world’s second-largest economy, with a gross domestic product exceeding $US10 trillion. China is the world’s largest trading power and houses the world’s largest bank and several of the world’s largest companies.
Despite embracing many aspects of capitalism, the People’s Republic remains a one-party state dominated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). While there has been some political reform and decentralisation, the CCP continues to exert rigid control over government, policy and appointments. State propaganda and censorship remain strong features of Chinese society; around two-thirds of Chinese have access to the internet but the government operates rigorous control systems, blocking foreign sites like Facebook and monitoring individual use. Human rights abuses in China are widespread, including persecution of minorities and dissidents, the use of torture and detention without trial, an excessive use of the death penalty, forced abortions, exploitation and underpayment of workers and impingements on freedom of speech and freedom of the press. China has the second-largest military in the world behind the US, with 2.2 million full-time personnel and an unknown number of reservists. It remains a nuclear power and in recent times has modernised and expanded its air force, naval and submarine assets. In the past decade, the Chinese military has occupied several contested islands in the South China Sea, as well as constructing seven artificial islands using sand and concrete. These activities are viewed with concern by the US, which believes the islands may serve as forward bases for military activities. Others see this expansion as China moving to protect and fortify its major shipping lanes.
North Korea and Cuba
While communism dwindled in the 1990s, several communist regimes survived into the 21st century. The most significant of these was North Korea. By the 1980s, North Korea had evolved into a fully-fledged Stalinist state, marked by rigid authoritarianism and a cult of personality around leader Kim Il-Sung. North Korea relied heavily on Soviet trade and financial aid so the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 had dire effects on its economy, triggering major shortages and widespread famine. Despite this, Kim and his advisors maintained a sizeable military and funded programs to develop nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. This apparent breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty led to an international crisis in 1993. Kim Il-Sung died suddenly in July 1994, raising hopes of rapprochement with the West – but his successor, eldest son Kim Jong-il, continued to expand North Korea’s military and repeatedly provoke South Korea and the West. Today, North Korea is the only surviving Stalinist state, ruled by Kim Il-Sung’s grandson Kim Jong-un. It has conducted several nuclear tests since 2006 and is believed to have constructed at least a dozen nuclear warheads. North Korea has maintained a hostile position with regard to neighbouring South Korea, though Kim Jong-un’s visit to the South in April 2018 has raised hopes of improved relations in the future.
The events of late 1991 also created problems in Cuba which, like North Korea, was reliant on Soviet support. Cuba slipped into an economic depression after losing almost four-fifths of its trade, while the importation of oil, food and medicine slowed to a crawl. The island nation suffered critical shortages of petroleum, paralysing its transportation system. Famine was avoided, chiefly due to international humanitarian aid, but hunger and malnutrition were widespread. The Cuban economy began to recover slowly in the mid-1990s, aided by the government’s decision to allow foreign tourists onto the island. The US maintained its diplomatic freeze and trade embargo, hoping to force the overthrow of Fidel Castro and his regime. In 2008 Castro, by now in his 80s and in poor health, retired and handed the presidency to his brother. Under Raul Castro, relations between Cuba and the US began to thaw. Washington allowed limited exports to Cuba in 2012. The Cuban thaw was completed in 2015 with the restoration of diplomatic ties, the reopening of the US embassy in Havana and a visit to the island by US president Barack Obama.
1. After the Cold War, Russia signed treaties with several former Soviet republics, assuming control of all Soviet Union nuclear warheads. Today there are ten nuclear-capable states.
2. The end of the Cold War led to geopolitical changes in Europe, such as the division of Czechoslovakia and the dissolution of Yugoslavia, which led to a deadly civil war.
3. The Cold War also sparked changes in the Middle East, such as an Islamic revolution in Iran and the rise of Islamic radicals and terrorist groups in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
4. Since 1991, China has replaced the USSR as the world’s second-largest power. It is controlled by the Communist Party but has embraced elements of globalised capitalism.
5. Two socialist remnants of the Cold War are North Korea and Cuba. North Korea remains an authoritarian, Stalinist state isolated from the rest of the world. Since the death of Castro, Cuba has charted a more moderate course, restoring and improving relations with the nearby United States.
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This page was written by Jennifer Llewellyn and Steve Thompson. To reference this page, use the following citation:
J. Llewellyn & S. Thompson, “The post-Cold War world”, Alpha History, accessed [today’s date], https://alphahistory.com/coldwar/post-cold-war-world/.